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Project title: Knowledge integration and Management Strategy Evaluation modelling
Program: Kimberley Marine Research Program

Modelling the future of the Kimberley region


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Why Computer Models
What do we mean by Futures and what can be said about it?
The Scenarios
The Management Strategies
The models
  • EwE
  • Alces
  • Indicators
    Types of visualisations
    Results
  • Alces Results

  • Scenario analysis
  • Summary
  • All Results

  • Strategy analysis
  • Summary
  • All Results
  • Contacts
    FAQs

    Alces Results

    The full description of all Alces results can be downloaded here (~500 mb). Alces results have been used as input to EwE as described here. Of particular significance for EwE simulation, is the decision made by the Alces team to treat climate change induced temperature and precipitation changes independently due to uncertainty on how climate change may affect precipitation regime in the Kimberly. As a result, each climate change scenario (Low, medium and high) was split into two scenarios: low climate change warming and lower precipitation (Low C Dry), low climate change warming and higher precipitation (Low C Wet) etc.  As a result, the 3*3 Future plane had to be modified into a 6*3 plane as shown in the blue panel in the figure below. The remaining 3 scenarios in Figure 1 will be described below.

    Kimberley Scenarios
    Figure 1. Modified ‘3 by 3’ Future plane consisting of The Climate Change and Development axes. Each climate change scenario has been divided into a ‘drier’ and a ‘wetter’ sub scenario, reflecting the uncertainty of how climate change may affected precipitation regimes in the Kimberley.