The Knowledge integration and Management Strategy Evaluation modelling project has a number of objectives, deliverables and planned out outcome which are described in further detail here

What models are used in the projects?

Two models (Ecopath with Ecosim [EwE] and Alaces) are used to simulate land and marine processes in the Kimberley region. An overall description of the models is found here. Specific implementation details of Ecopath with Ecosym can be found here whilst specific implementation of Alces is described here

What data does this project use? How have the models being parameterised?

Data on wide range of ecological functional groups (i.e. marine mammals; birds; commercial fish species; predatory fish; marine reptiles; invasive species, invertebrates; nekton and primary producer data, etc), ecological and bio-physical processes (ocean circulation, primary production etc), human activities (housing, fishing, tourism, industrial development etc) and land based processes (exploration & mining, agriculture, infrastructure development, river flows, bush-fires, etc) has been collected and processed in anticipation for the running of model scenarios. All data that could reasonably be accessed, including data from other WAMSI funded projects has been included. The Kimberley Alces Online synopsis includes details on the thousands of publications and data layers used to parameterise Alces for this project. Here you can find information about the data used by EwE and here you can find an approximate assessment of EwE implementation quality as a function of the input data.

How have the results from other WAMSI projects been integrated and used by the modelling team?

How should the project outcome and model output be interpreted?

We believe a model outcome represents an assessment of what may happen to the Kimberly region under different possible scenarios and management strategies. In other words, we believe that a model output can be interpreted as a possible answer to questions like, for example, “if these climate conditions eventuate and we take this set of conservation initiatives, how may the marine ecosystem look like 2050?”. See also here. A more technical analysis of the meaning of model results can be found in 'What is a model, why people don’t trust them and why they should', 'Modelling = Conditional Prediction' and 'How Computational Models Predict the Behavior of Complex Systems'.

Who can use this projects results?

It is intended that the scenarios generated will help guide decision-making, planning and monitoring on the likely response of natural resources to increasing human and climate pressure. Information generated as part of this research will be of relevance to the Kimberley Science and Conservation Strategy, and the proposed Great Kimberley Marine Park network of Marine Parks.

When will the project’s results be made available?

Alces results will likely be available by March 2017. EwE results will be availabel by October 2017. The results will be included in this web site.

Can I use the model results and input data?

Input data used to produce the model results may be accessible for other uses. You will need to see the WAMSI website for further information on http://www.wamsi.org.au/data-and-informationconditions of access and use.

Has any component of this work been published?

Not yet, since the full set of simulations has not been yet completed. We plan to publish the results towards the end of 2017.

How has the model domain been determined and why?

The rationale for the model domain is based on jurisdictional, geophysical and ecological considerations. See here for further details.

How have the scenarios and strategies been determined and why?

A ‘3 by 3’ Future plane consisting of The Climate Change and Development axes has been used which has resulted in 9 scenarios that describe potential interplay between Climate Change and Development stressor. A further description can be found here. Five management strategies (High regulation; Medium regulation; Low regulation; Reversed regulation; Worst case) were chosen with input from key stakeholders. Further details on these strategies are described here.

Why have you decided to project the model simulation to as far as 2050?

The 2050 horizon was chosen to match an extensive body of work currently carried out both in Australia and internationally (see references cited here).

How can anyne, including a computer model, possibly say anything credible about what may happen to the Kimberley region in 2050? Why should I trust these results?

This is a fair and very important question. Our view is that predictions, seen as an expectation of ranges of future behaviours, are not just desirable, but necessary for decision making: meaningful decision-making requires prediction. Without some rough, possibly vague, guess at the consequences of different available decisions, we would have no reason to prefer one decision over another. The important question is what type of prediction best supports decision-making.

We believe that currently computer models are the best tools technology can offer to help decision-making of this complexity. Models don’t make decisions and don’t provide prophecies of what will happen in the Kimberley region, but when used judiciously can help ask questions of management significance by saying something meaningful about what may happen to the region under a wide range of conditions. This has the potential to ensure management decisions are made with the best available information and the best available insight on the likely future of the region in the decades to come.

Some scientists and some decision makers believe that computer models are the most effective tool to understand and manage systems as complex as the Kimberley environment. Other scientists and decision makers are more sceptical. There are many well-reasoned arguments both for and against the use of computer models in complex decision making. Here and here you can find a review of these argument, many references and our own opinion

Is there any presentation or video about this project?

A Prezi presentation which describes the project can be found here.